POLITICS: South China Seas. The silence of the lambs?
When analyzing the variety of disputes that have been cooking up in the region of the South China Seas, a couple of logical questions that would crop up in a layman’s mind are as follows:
Why is this issue not causing an uproar; in other words, why are opinions and arguments are not being floated briskly?
The world of diplomacy can be very tricky and may defy all logic and reasoning, but it is rarely dependent on emotions; most of the time, it is cold and calculated facts that determine the course of many an initiatives. Even the decision to as much as make a comment on some issue may be taken after much vacillating and deliberations.
The Philippines haven gone ahead to bell the cat by making a move in UNCLOS to right a wrong that has been and is being perpetrated by the heavyweight of the region, China. But, even though every other nation might be having its own considered opinions on this issue, there is hardly any nation that is coming out and participating in the arguments of the imbroglio.
Most of the nations involved in some way in the South China Seas are not very forthcoming in exhibiting their support for Philippines since they have to tread very carefully so that they do not fall into the dicey trap of the Chinese hawks who are itching for a fight. This will happen if there is overwhelming support for the Filipinos and the Chinese feel that they have been isolated politically.
Thus, the interest of regional stability lies in not pushing China into a deep corner into which it gets pushed and has no viable diplomatic options which is what the situation will be if the UNCLOS delivers a judgement that is against the claims of the Chinese.
In such a case, China may see itself losing face not only feeding and strengthening the arguments of the hawks but also reflecting in a bad public opinion of its failure in conclusively conveying the soundness of its foreign affairs policies.
Another outcome of a favorable ruling for the Philippines will be that, in view of this ruling by the UNCLOS, the doors for further negotiations between the ASEAN and China will be almost closed shut; this might be detrimental to the chances of the regional players to arrive at some settlement that is binding and acceptable for all concerned.
The scenario that has been persisting is one of just letting the issue keep on hanging without any direction especially since there are no proper prospects of a solid code emerging; China’s employment of Cambodia to scuttle the consensus in ASEAN is a constant reminder that no concrete agreement is in sight.
China has been quite prepared to risk a skirmish or clash in the seas, the policy being to highlight their claim further; there have also been some confrontations especially the one with Vietnam where quite a few Vietnamese casualties were also seen.
One thing that may be said for the path employed by Manila; it risks having its claim running for a long time caught up in legal wrangling and consequent delays, but it should not be underestimated or taken lightly.
It is a cleverly designed submission that is not asking for something that requires the re-marking of the boundaries of Maritime rights of each country; on the other hand, Manila is just asking questions as follows:
- What, according to the UNCLOS, is the validity or otherwise of the Nine-Dashed Line that was first put forth by the Chinese, and
- Are the rocky and land features in the South China Seas mere rocky atolls or islands?
Hence, the issues raised by the Filipinos are technical clarifications that when analyzed will place the disputes and their fundamentals on the proper footing; no country can occupy, fortify or build upon any land or maritime structure which is within its limits.
You cannot just build anywhere which is not an island you legally hold; added to that is the issue of harassment of the Filipinos who venture out in the seas.
And, with the way the Filipinos have posed the questions, it is highly likely that the UN body may come out with a ruling that it considers vindication of its stand, the Chinese are most probably going to ignore it as has been stated by them.
This scenario may be the most likely, unless some agency is able to persuade the Filipinos to withdraw their case. But, whether China pays heed to such a ruling or not, the Philippines would have achieved a reference point to go by.
This will also empower other parties to the various pending disputes to get a point for reference and a basis for arguments basing on such a favorable ruling.
Thus, such a judgement will have achieved a substantial victory of sorts, if we may call it that; at least there will a precedent for the regional entities of the Indo-Pacific region.
It will also be interesting to watch the reactions of the now silent countries with an axe to grind in the region.
The Chinese perspective
At the recently concluded Shangri-La dialogue that had the defense representatives, ministers and experts interacting, speaking and understanding the thinking of the world’s best in defense and strategy.
The fourth plenary session Shangri-La Dialogue, of the IISS 2016 saw the Chinese viewpoint from close quarters and the observers and analysts devoted their time to hear, read and understand the written and unwritten messages that emerged from the address by, Deputy Chief of the Joint Staff Department of China’s Central Military Commission, Admiral Sun Jianguo.
In an emotion packed address, he stood up to make a point of conducting a stoic defense of China’s strategic posture. From the viewpoint of the keen observers and analysts, it was evident to most that though the speech was about the Chinese position on the various disputes in the region, the idea was to impact the domestic audiences back home.
The main thrust of his comments were directed at the opinion expressed by Ashton Carter the United States Secretary of Defense; he emphasized the advantages of building bilateral machinery for interactions so that better understanding of each other’s concerns can be developed over time.
He asserted that the regional strategic partnerships which were being formed, did not hold much significance in the current scenario; this was, perhaps, a veiled reference to the United States who had alliances in the region particularly with Philippines who had gone to UNCLOS for clarifications and resolving their dispute with China.
This comment was also in response to the comments made by the United States Secretary of Defense who had warned against China becoming totally isolated from all else with what he called a Wall of self-isolation.
Umrao Singh Umraoz.wordpress.com
Sunday, June 12, 2016
Written for: Lars-Magnus Carlsson www.thephilippinepride.com
