Military defies Duterte on war games? Contradictions galore in policies!

Military announces dates for combat exercises.

The goings-on in the Philippines are a bit confusing to the onlookers; observers are trying to make sense and reaching their own inferences and speculating as to which aspect is the right interpretations of the confusing signals.

Another surprising thing was the announcement that came from the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) who made a terse announcement last week that the first round of widespread combat exercises involving both the US army and the Filipino Army.

Under the Duterte administration this was the first time these exercises were taking place. And, it was amazing that the Army was saying something while the government and the government head were speaking in a totally different language.

Eyebrows going northwards are a given; but, are the two entities that are giving contradicting statements aware of the effect that they are having on the populace. They continue to be identified as being on the same side but the policies that they are following do not spell unity.

There is President Duterte who is making a speech and stating that he would not allow joint exercises of his country’s armed forces with those of the United States since these exercises will send the wrong signals to China and may invite an armed conflict in the area considered as Filipino territory.

Some observers interpret this as a deliberate rebuff to the ruling government; but, who is going to ask them?
While President Duterte goes around shooting his mouth against the policies of the US, there is the AFP announcing the dates for the engagement.
So, whom do we believe?

There is also the impact of the statement of Duterte that exhorted the US forces to withdraw from the Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao just because the Muslim majority did not like the presence of the US Army there. This statement of the President of the Philippines did have an adverse impact on the other allies in the Asia pacific region like Vietnam and Japan.

It is stated that the combat exercises that are to take place between October 4th 2016 and October 12th 2016 will be full-fledged display of military muscles taking place in the midst of the disputed waters of the South China Seas.

More than 1400 US forces personnel and about 500 Filipino soldiers will be involved in the exercises that will comprise live-fire exercises at a gunnery range in the northern Philippines. Amphibious landings by the marines of both the allies will also take place.

The agreement

The Supreme Court of the Philippines had upheld in January the holding of these exercises under the PH – US visiting Forces Agreement (VTA) that binds the two allies together.
These exercises also keep the military might in full sight of the region by the flexing of the military muscle periodically.
Under the VTA, the US forces possess the right to enhance their troops’ strength for conduct of these war games while also augmenting the collection of the military hardware that is already stocked in the military bases in the Philippines.
A former naval base of the US forces in the Philippines, Subic Bay is also included in the areas that possess these liberties under the VTA agreement.
It shocks most observers on both sides that the President of the Philippines is trying to undo such a secure arrangement of security which may be the only available support system that saves the country from a massacre in the event of a war.
He has been antagonizing the biggest ally, the US in a number of ways but is playing up to the Chinese and the Moros in a very big way. He continues to harp on the independent approach that he wants to pursue without talking the US in account.

But, the Military knows better; China is playing the bully in the region making provocative moves and inviting the regional entities to an altercation.

In such a scenario, the VTA agreement is a veritable shield of protection. Hence, the military authorities have taken it upon themselves to try sand salvage the safety that the alliance is providing them.

The President does not translate the subject of his speeches to reality, as the US had not received any such notice to withdraw from anywhere in the Philippines; John Kirby the spokesman of the US State Department revealed this.

Kirby explained that they had not received any formal request from the government of the Philippines asking the US forces to withdraw from the ARMM region. Besides, it would be premature to react on the basis of reports in the press, he remarked.

In spite of the unofficial nature of the President’s comments on various issues, the US remains committed to its allies; he also stressed on the long and close nature of the alliance between the two countries.

Policy shift?

The ranting and raving from the President of the Philippines was a sort of knee-jerk reaction to the bombing of his home city of Davao recently has manifested itself in an anti-American tirade from Duterte. It prompted him to declare a state of lawlessness in the whole country.

His reasoning for justifying the task of asking the US forces to leave was that the locals were deeply resentful of their presence and may resort to kidnappings and guerilla attacks on the US troops. This may lead to the worsening of the ground situation in the Muslim majority areas.

His nationalistic postures have been a source of some embarrassment to the military and other entities including the US Army; but, the seems to be bent upon seeing with clarity the options that will be of benefit to them as the protectors of the nation.

The act of declaring the tentative dates for the combat exercises, the Army seems to be sending a subtle message without openly defying or antagonizing the President or seeming to challenge his authority because this is not the time to show such lawlessness.

The Army is not in any mood to alter the environment or the security mechanism that is established quite firmly in the fabric of the nation.
Contradicting policies and utterances
.
The military eyebrows were seen to be raised when he professed to be a socialist while they are amused at the unreasonable utterances and defiant announcements that he would be pursuing a foreign policy not dependent on the US.

Some of us fail to understand as to what advantages is the President seeking by playing up to all the anti-national forces and China while making a mockery of himself and his ties with the United States; in his eagerness to please some, he has also become personal against Obama which is carrying it too far.

There is also an attempt to mend fences with China that were strained during the previous regime; in fact, even the litigation in the ITLOS was launched during the tenure of President Benigno Aquino III.

When the ruling refuted all the unfounded claims of China, they refused to acknowledge it totally. Knowledgeable sources believe that by President Duterte soft peddling the whole issue, the prospects of an implementation of the rulings of the Permanent Court of Arbitration look like a remote possibility.

The full impact of the derogatory interpretations of his friendly overtures by the Chinese does not seem to be apparent to him. He just seems to have shifted his policy from protection by a tried and tested ally to an undependable foe that has a mind of his own.

Why does he think that the Chinese friends will be better for his country than the old ally? The answer to this question is neither clear nor discernible to most of the observers.

Thus, the signals transmitted by his fickle reasoning and his unreasonable pronouncements are quite hazy and contradictory.
Contradictions are plenty when he attacks the US but does not want to abrogate the US – PH treaty; and then, he also says that the US is required to maintain the balance of power in the region.

This round of contradictions, friendly gestures, ravings and ranting may soon give way to sound reasoning, clearer thought and a strong and definitive policy to guide the nation in the right direction.
We wait for that dawn!

Concluded.

Umrao singh umraoz.wordpress.com

Friday, 30 September 2016
Written for: Lars-Magnus Carlsson www.thephilippinepride.com

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